According to Jamie Shea, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, NATO looks at environmental change very carefully because of its increasing impact on security. The International Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest report is clear that, according to Shea, “within 10 to 20 years, we are going to see important impacts in many areas, which will have an effect on security. For instance, changes in rainfall with increasing droughts will impact agricultural production. Growing ocean acidification will have consequences for plant life, fauna and fish stocks. These changes could, in turn, lead to human migratory flows, which are already severe in some parts of the world. Security problems and disputes could occur over the sharing of arable land and water resources, such as important rivers. Think, for instance, of the role Africa’s Nile River plays in sustaining countries economically. And, consider freak weather conditions. We have already seen how Hurricane Katrina led to the deployment of 30,000 U.S. troops to deal with levee issues, evacuations, looting and public order in a situation where local authorities and emergency rescue services were overwhelmed by the extent of the disaster.
“Whether or not one attributes events like Hurricane Katrina to global warming, the evidence increasingly shows that we are seeing more and more freak weather conditions. We have had flooding in Europe not seen for centuries. And two years ago heat waves in Russia were causing Russians to dive into Moscow fountains in their suits in the middle of summer. This is not something people normally expect to happen. Again, the military in a number of countries has dealt with flooding and forest fires as a consequence of very high temperatures. High temperatures also mean increased disease vectors, such as migratory insects – mosquitoes, for example – that follow the heat wave. This increases the possibility of epidemics coming back.
“One doesn’t want to be a ‘Cassandra’ or paint too alarmist a picture, but many military establishments, particularly in the Pentagon but also in Europe, are starting to seriously factor in climate change. The latter also has consequences for the resiliency of critical infrastructure. For example, if permafrost starts to melt then railway lines inside Siberia, as well as energy and oil pipelines, can be affected. How do countries make critical infrastructure more resilient to extreme weather conditions? This is definitely now a topic for the military and a topic for NATO.”
To address environmental issues threatening security in vulnerable regions, NATO joined five other international agencies in 2004 to form the Environmental and Security (ENVSEC) Initiative. The five other agencies include: the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and Regional Environment Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC). “As a result, NATO is able to factor in...
